Essential elements of intelligence and the intelligence
cycle in overseas relations include what is better described as “the cover
story”. It is an old conundrum referring to the story that is put out to the
public and sustained as a narrative to mask far more strategic interests in
government-to- government relations. It is based on that established thin
line between the right to know and the need to know and indeed in diplomatic
relations, if ordinary people are allowed to know everything, there will be
utter chaos on the streets around the world. I make this point in the light of
the excitement that US Secretary of State John Kerry’s visit appears to be
generating. He will visit Nigeria, August 23-24, after Kenya, 22-23, and from
here, he will jet off to Saudi Arabia, 24-25.
The cover story is that he will hold talks with President
Muhammadu Buhari, Northern Governors and religious leaders, give a speech on
“countering violent extremism” in Sokoto, and thematically focus on
“counter-terrorism efforts, the economy, the fight against corruption and human
rights issues” during the trip. Nicely, correctly crafted cover story!
America loves Nigeria. America wants to help Nigeria. And once we are told this
story, even our foreign ministry officials get really excited. They tell the
President: “this is big! It shows America is supporting the administration. Mr.
President, America loves you, don’t mind those tweeps on social media.” They
would have forgotten most conveniently that Secretary John Kerry has been
visiting Africa since 2014, and before him, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
did so too. We tend to be overly impressed by the recognition, but we often
fail to look beyond the cover story.
The Americans don’t consider a visit such as this the circus
that we think it is. And that is why the Foreign Affairs Ministry must put up
its thinking caps in preparing the briefing notes for President Buhari. They
must anticipate one critical question that the cover story does not cover: what
does America want? What is in this visit for the United States? And what does
Nigeria want? And what should the Nigerian President say to Mr. Kerry at that
critical moment when he suddenly requests for a one-on-one and all Presidential
assistants are asked to leave the room? That is usually where the rub is, that
critical moment when the Nigerian President is left alone with a strategic
guest and he may not know exactly what to say to messages and statements for
which he had not been prepared. And when the American envoy makes requests,
what should he say at that very moment? We have a lot at stake, and it is
important that this particular visit is not treated as another opportunity to
have a nice dinner party and showcase Nigerian culture and arts.
John Kerry attended President Buhari’s inauguration in May
2015. This is what he wrote, inter alia, after the
visit: “Last May, I shared in an extraordinary moment. I had the
privilege, together with many leaders from across Africa, of bearing witness to
the first peaceful, democratic transition of power between two parties in
Nigeria. I traveled to Lagos earlier this year to emphasize that for the United
States, Nigeria is an increasingly important strategic partner with a critical
role to play in the security and prosperity of the region. I also said that it
was imperative that these elections set a new standard for democracy in the
continent. There is no doubt that this is a decisive moment for democracy in Africa…In
Africa, as elsewhere, there is a deep hunger for governments that are
legitimate, honest and effective….”
Secretary of State Kerry will be visiting Nigeria tomorrow I
believe, to carry out a year-after, on-the-spot, hear-see-for-yourself assessment.
He must have heard that a year after his last visit, so much has happened in
Nigeria, and the rest of Africa. Africa itself is at a tipping point, growth
has slowed down tragically, commodity prices have declined, old problems and
wounds have resurfaced, and democratic renewal has not resulted in “honest and
effective” governance, and in all this, Nigeria faces special challenges; it is
at the outmost edge of that tipping point. The threat level in the
country has gone up, policy uncertainty is high, the people’s voices are not
being heard and generally, things are hard: unemployment, security issues,
human rights, and an economy in recession capable of exacerbating social crisis
and so on.
America will expect President Buhari to defend his administration.
The briefing notes must take care of that, but let no one be fooled: no one may
have talked about behind-the-scene meetings, the truth is that the American
team will not listen to only one side of the story. There will be undeclared
meetings with civil society, the opposition, the business community and other
interest groups, who in typical Nigerian fashion will speak their minds. Right
now, that may not be complimentary. Non-state actors are perhaps more important
sources of intelligence because intelligence is neither mere information nor
publicity or a strictly state-based activity. Take this: John Kerry may be
visiting to enable the American government make up its mind about the Buhari
government.
But why should anyone care about what America thinks? We are
after all, a sovereign nation, and Secretary of State John Kerry should not
even be talking to President Buhari, he should meet with his counterpart in our
own foreign ministry. Hold it. The difference is that America remains the
world’s superior power and it does not joke with its self-assigned role of the
world’s police, even if at the centre of that mix, is the paramount element of
America’s national interest. Nigeria, being the most populous country in
Africa, and an oil-rich country with international investments, is of strategic
interest to the United States.
We are, by that fact also, a threat to America’s interest in
a number of ways. The first is the threat of Nigeria becoming a festering spot
for terrorism, and home of the world’s deadliest terror group. Since May 2015,
the Buhari administration has made efforts to curb terrorism in the problematic
parts of the North, but in the past few weeks, with the re-appearance of
Abubakar Shekau, the factionalisation of the Jama’t Ahl as-Sunnah lid
Da’wah wa’l Jihad with a faction led by Abu Musab al-Barnawi, and the
further confirmation of a linkage with the ISIL, it seems obvious that the
threat of terrorism in Nigeria is far from being resolved. The potential of
that threat getting worse is even far more evident now more than ever.
The second threat is the Niger Delta, and the resurgence of
violence in that volatile part of the world. America may have discovered
Shale oil and its reliance on Nigerian Brent crude may have reduced, but
American multinationals still have significant investments in Nigeria. America
has every reason to protect American investment and citizens. The third threat
is Nigeria’s continuing romance with China. The Jonathan administration did not
hide its interest in China and Sino-Nigerian relations. I believe his
administration paid dearly for this open, and well-intended friendship with
America’s rival in Africa. The Buhari administration continued in this regard,
where the Jonathan administration left off, since in any case, Nigeria is
non-aligned, but the sub-text is that the United States may not be too
comfortable with the Chinese encroachment on spaces it once occupied and the
open complicity of traditional allies in undermining American interest.
President Buhari should be briefed to listen very carefully to both what is spoken
and that which is unspoken.
The fourth threat is the security situation in the
country. In the last month alone, both the United States and the United
Kingdom have released, perhaps the most damaging travel warnings to their
nationals living in or doing business in Nigeria. The UK Foreign and
Commonwealth Office advises against travel by British nationals to 11 states of
the Federation, and strictly essential travel to another seven states. The
United States warns against travel to about 20 states. Both countries cite
“high threat from terrorism, kidnapping, violent crime and demonstrations/civil
unrest.” What is left? It is as bad as both major partner-countries alleging
that Nigeria is not safe for anyone. Their European allies and other countries
may not have issued any travel warnings, but the disclaimers from the US and
the UK can be taken as a reflection of the assessment of the Nigerian situation
and international reaction to Nigeria’s change agenda since 2015. Whoever
is preparing the briefing notes for President Buhari should take this into
consideration.
And may I advise that the briefing should avoid the initial
reaction by Information Minister Lai Muhammed. He dismissed the travel warnings
as untrue and advised the Nigerian media to ignore and not promote the
story. It actually seems as if the local media acted as directed.
Which is stupid. What has been overlooked is that foreign embassies in Nigeria
from where intelligence about local situations is sourced are non-partisan.
Ahead of the visit by Secretary of State John Kerry, the Foreign Affairs
Ministry should have engaged the relevant embassies and assured them of the
administration’s efforts. They could have issued ahead of John Kerry’s arrival,
a reasonable account of what has been done so far, in a manner that does not
compromise the sovereign, but which deals with the perception issues thrown up
by the pre-Kerry visit build up by America and its allies.
And of course, whatever the tone of the diplomatese, always
look beyond the cover stories. John Kerry’s visit may be the tipping point for
the Buhari administration and it may well not be, considering the fact that the
United States is itself in transition, but if Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton becomes President, we would be dealing from January 2017 with someone
who knows Nigeria too well. In the meantime, President Buhari should have
something specific to say to the United States through Kerry. It’d be wrong to
treat this as a farewell visit by a lame-duck American administration. Not yet
and certainly not so. President Barack Obama will leave office in
November without ever visiting Nigeria!
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