Sir, there is a remarkable side to the 2015 General
Elections that Nigerians are yet to understand and appreciate. And yet, it is
as extra-ordinary as it is profound. This is in the parallels between 2015 and
1983, and how, in His infinite mercy, God used INEC, under your
superintendence, to avert a military coup; thus, saving our democracy.
Through your uncommon courage, you ensured that INEC took
the concept of One-Man, One-Vote beyond song andsloganeering. And this has
eventuated in a democratic earthquake: with the incumbent president tumbling
from power; and his party – with its habituated impunity, concentrated
arrogance and a compounded sense of entitlement – becoming an opposition party;
this, after its celebrated boast of remaining ion power for a minimum of 60
years!
Sir, by weaning INEC from executive strings, you enabled it
to move from the Arithmetic of Politics to the Mathematics of Votes. In other words, you insisted that votes must
count. And so for the very first time in our electoral history, the voter has
become king. And parties that depended on factors others than votes to win
elections are disintegrating in quarrelsome catharsis.
Furthermore, sir, under your guidance, the
Commissiondemonstrated that it has: the introspection, to sober-reflect; the
capacity, to re-invent itself; the awakening, to fulfil its mandate; the
resilience, to withstand pressure; and a sense of history strong enough as to
re-attune its processes to the mechanics and dynamics of electoral integrity.
You virtually dragged Nigeria into the hallowed Chambers of Best-Practices
Democracy.
INEC has, thus, served retirement notices on the political
god-fathers, the political contractors, and the political thugs as well as the
political fixers and impunity merchants of all colorations.
Succinctly put, you have saved our Democracy from collapse.
The surprise is that the country (the politicians, the political parties, the
electorate…) has yet to realize that it owes you a debt of gratitude.
Sir, this is how you saved our democracy. There were four
things in the 2015 General Elections that have uncanny parallels with the
elections of 1983. In a bizarre case of life imitating art, history repeated
itself, and this, with surrealistic details.
First, there was a debilitating insurrection of the
Maitatsine Sect, which gripped parts of what is today known as the North-West
and North-East, specifically, Kano (1980), Kaduna (1982), Maiduguri (1982) and
Bauchi (1983). As Shagari was unable to contain the menace of the dangerous
Islamic Sect all through his tenure, Dr. Jonathan too was not able to contain
the menacing Boko Haram Insurgency throughout his extra-four-year tenure.
Although the loss of lives and property under Shagari was nothing near the
scale of carnage and destruction under Jonathan, in both instances, the
intractable insecurity challenge raised posers as to the respective incumbent’s
capacity to be presidential where and when it mattered most to the nation and
her citizenry.
Second, Sir, in mid-1981, there was a burst in the Oil Boom
in the global market. It was to have a direct bearing on government’s capacity
to meet its obligations to the people. The same thing happened in the run-up to
the 2015 General Elections as Oil Prices plummeted in the International Oil
Market; and suddenly, the government, used to big budgets, big spending, and
big promises was left stranded on the island of squandermania.
In late 1981, when the Leader of the UPN, Chief Obafemi
Awolowo, warned the Shagari-Government that the economy was heading for the
rocks, presidential spokesmen labeled him an alarmist, but a few months later,
the Federal Government was forced to declare an Economic Emergency remembered
more as the Austerity Measures. And under Jonathan, when the (then) opposition
warned against profligacy and depleting foreign reserves, presidential
spokesmen called them anarchists. But a
few months down the line, the Finance Minister, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, was
forced to concede that Government was living on credit!
Third, Sir, although the NPN was intent on perpetuating
itself in power, there was a rueful disconnection between the NPN-led Federal
Government and the people. All that mattered was re-election. It did appear the
then Federal Government abdicated governance. This is why the President would
see the smoke billowing from the burning NET Building in Lagos in mid-1982, but
would wave, enthusiastically, to pockets
of party supporters at the Murtala Muhammed International Airport (MMIA) and
jet out to India, the second trip to India that year!
In the same vein, sir, it would appear Jonathan gave up on
governance department: in the end, all that mattered was a second term. This is
why just a day after the deadly Nyanya
bomb blast, the President left Abuja to lead the PDP campaign train to Kano,
where he showed the nation some of his best dancing moves.
Sir, So all the three ingredients, which made a military
coup ripe in 1983, were present in pre-May, 2015 Nigeria! But there was yet, a
fourth ingredient: it was the FEDECO-orchestrated and Police-supervised,
landslide-victories of Shagari’s NPN in the 1983 General Elections. There was
incredulity in the Old Anambra state (where Zik hailed from): Chief Christian
Onoh sent Chief Jim Nwobodo (NPP) packing. In Bendel State, where Dr. Samuel
Ogbemudia upstaged Prof. Ambrose Alli (UPN), there was numbness. There were
hues and cries in Old Kano, Old Kaduna, Old Borno and defunct Gongola states
where opposition governors were all replaced by NPN governors! But where protests were mild in the other
areas, in the South-West, especially Oyo, where Dr. Omololu Olunloyo up-staged
Chief Bola Ige, and Chief Akin Omoboriowo tried to do same in Ondo, where UPN’s
war-horse, Adekunle Ajasin held his ground, it was the sights and sounds of
war.
Clearly, it would seem the NPN-landslide was one landslide
too many, taking into account the landslide-dip in oil revenues,
thelandslide-plunge into insecurity and the landslide-tumble into the cesspit
of “indiscipline, lawlessness and squandermania,” (apologies to Sani Abacha).
And somehow, this FEDECO-engineered, electoral landslide gave birth to other
landslides in the polity.
Sir, the first of these follow-up landslides was from
Onuiyi-Haven, Nsukka, where the larger-than-life Owelle of Onitsha and
Presidential Candidate of the Nigeria Peoples Party (NPP), Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe,
gave his famous reaction to the brazen vote-theft: “History will vindicate the
just, but God will punish the wicked.”
And when Presidential Adviser on Political Matters, Dr.
Chuba Okadigbo, dismissed his protest as “the rantings of an ant,” and rubbed
salt on the injury by adding that: “Zik is the leader of 2000 Igbos who do not
know their origin,” the somber Owelle capped his landslide-prophecy with a
tremor, an after-shock: he placed a curse on Okadigbo!
But, sir, the more significant landslide came in the
direction of the barracks, where Babangida, a newly-minted Major-General, began
holding highly secretive meetings with his select-group of
conspirator-officers. In fact, shortly after the FEDECO chief, Justice
Ovie-Whiskey, gave Shagari his certificate of return, Downing Street alerted
Ribadu Roadof these “clandestine meetings.” And on December 31st, 1983, just
three months after taking his second oath of office, Gen. Sani Abacha (then a
Brigadier), interrupted the FRCN dawn-broadcast to give his now famous: “My
fellow-countrymen”speech.
Like Josef Stalin, it would seem that Shagari’s henchmen
i.e. the Umaru Dikkos, the Adisa Akinloyes, the Okadigbos, the Maitama Bellos
and the Ahmed Ubas esteemed FEDECO staff over voters: for while the latter
merely voted, and no more; it was the former who did the counting!
So, of the four ingredients that necessitated a military
take-over in 1983, three were in evidence, namely: collapsed oil prices,
insecurity in the North occasioned by fringe Islamic groups, and rampaging
official corruption. The missing one was the fourth i.e. the manufactured and
counterfeit, “landslide electoral victories.”
This is where INEC, under your chairmanship, came in. And
your master-stroke was the Card-Reader.
It is interesting to note that where the IGP in 1983, Mr.
Sunday Adewusi, received presidential commendation, his counter-part in 2015,
Mr. Suleiman Abba, got a stinging rebuke plus a presidential sack! And while
the government of the day shielded a compromised Ovie-Whiskey from opposition
attacks, in 2015, it was the ruling party and its leaders in government that
led the sustained and acerbic onslaught against INEC, and especially your
person.
This is how you saved our democracy. You have even saved our
politicians from themselves. Where the politicians were not able to moderate
their greed for power, you checked them with your master-card. There is now hope
for our democracy, our democratization process, our politics and our country.
And this is the debt Nigeria owes INEC!
Sir, in one deft and strategic move, you have returned power
to the people. As American Economist and Senior Fellow at Brookings
Institution, Anthony Downs has postulated in his seminal work, An Economic
Theory of Democracy, the Nigerian Political Market now parallels the Economic
Market: our Political Parties now have to sell their programmes in the
Market-Square; and politicians will become Political Entrepreneurs – who will
seek votes competitively!
Sir, although you have now left, INEC has turned the corner.
A paradigm-shift is on the horizon.
The challenge before INEC is now that of consolidation. And
if your successor keeps faith with the democratic concept of one-man, one-vote,
2019 will inaugurate the era of empty/ceremonial Elections Petitions Tribunals!
Lawyers may complain, and judges may not be too happy, but a stable, functional
and best-practices democracy would have taken root in Nigeria, and in our
lifetime.
Imobo-Tswam, a public affairs analyst, writes from Abuja.
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